bettorsworld
2* Uconn +3 over Cincinnati - Lot's of similarities between these two Big East Teams. Cinci has had QB problems this year while Uconn will likely be down to their 3rd stringer Saturday as Zach Frazer looks doubtful as of this writing. (Pike will go for Cinci) Both teams are stingy on the defensive side of the ball and both teams have had similar results against similar competition. If Cinci has an edge it's in the kicking game as they sport some of the best punting numbers in the country. Likewise, the field goal kicking, where Uconn kicker Tony Ciaravino has been benched after missing a 42 yarder with under two minutes to play at Rutgers which would have given the Huskies the win.
Uconn became "good" in 2003. It's when everything came together for the program and they officially "arrived" on the scene. In that time, 2003 to the present, one thing has remained constant. Uconn has performed poorly on the road yet has been fantastic at home. 2003 was the only year they had a winning road record, going 4-2. Every year since, they have lost on the road. Yet at home, they have been one of the better teams in the entire nation, going 28-7 since 2003. In that time they have been an underdog 16 times, going 11-5 against the number. It's safe to say that Uconn has a significant home field advantage. Uconn returns home this week after 3 straight games on the road........there's no place like home.
Throw in some added motivation to go along with the home field edge and we have the makings of a nice spot for Uconn. That added motivation comes in the form of Uconn having never beaten Cinci. They are 0-4 against the Bearcats with last year being perhaps the worst loss of all as Uconn went to Cinci ranked #16 in the Nation and left with their tail between their legs in a 27-3 loss.
Cinci QB Tony Pike is coming back this week after breaking his non throwing arm. He may have picked the wrong week as Uconn has done a great job getting after the QB with 18 sacks on the year. Count on Pike getting rattled this week. It's tough to come back with that kind of an injury and not worry about getting reinjured. Especially after you find yourself on your back a few times.
Ultimately we don't think this game will be decided by the QB's but rather, the running games and the defensive side of the ball. On a neutral field we'd rate this game dead even. The intangibles mentioned above put Uconn over the top here, with their fantastic home field play, and the added incentive for Coach Edsall and the Juniors and Seniors on this Uconn Team. If it comes down to a last second field goal, we'll be crossing our fingers with Uconn using a new Freshman kicker this week, but we'll take our chances. Watch the number. We like the Huskies straight up here. But if/when they announce for sure that Zach Frazer won't play, you're likely to see an overreaction with the line. Currently there are a few +3's out there and you're likely to see more soon. 2* Uconn +3
2* Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State - There's alot more on the line this week in Columbus than just a football game. This game of course has Big 10 Title ramifications, but on the larger scale, has major significance on the National scene. A loss by Penn State would be a knock on the entire Big 10 Conference. If that happens, all you'll hear about is how the Big 10 is a weak conference that deserves no recognition or credit when talking National Title game. They'll say that Ohio State couldn't compete with USC, and then Penn State lost to Ohio State.......well, you get the picture and you know what? They'd be 100% correct. As it is, even if Penn State wins big, they are still going to be criticized for schedule strength. A look at either one of these two teams schedules is enough to make you yawn. This week will be the toughest game for both of these teams all year long. A Penn State win here and we're likely looking at Penn State undefeated and in the Title game. Imagine that, Joe Pa going out with the crown. That would be a story that even Hollywood couldn't have come up with. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.
This weeks game will likely be decided in the trenches which is why we like our chances with the Paternos. Both the offensive and defensive lines for Penn State have been playing great, dominating opponents while Ohio State might have some problems, particularly on the offensive line where they have suffered some injuries and start a freshman at center. Last year Penn State didn't force Ohio State to punt once. This year we think it will be a little different.
The skilled positions get all the glory. But it's the trenches that decide games like these, particularly in the Big 10 and we feel Penn State has the edge here on both sides of the ball. We'd also give them the edge at QB. Penn State did have some trouble with Juice Williams when they faced Illinois but as the game went on, they were able to slow him down. The stage may be a little too big this week for Ohio States Terrelle Pryor. His production went down every game until his big blowout performance against Mich State last week but this will be his biggest test to date for sure. He figures to be on his heels and off to the races quite a bit this week and if Penn State can contain him, it's game over. Cut off the head and the tail will follow.
We also have some additional motivational factors here. How about revenge times 7. That's how many times Ohio State has beaten JoePa in Columbus since Penn State joined the Big 10. They have also beaten Penn State the last two times they have played including last years dominating effort. Big game for JoePa. Big game for the Penn State Juniors and Seniors.
Penn State has been the better team this year. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball and have a fantastically balanced offense. Ohio State has struggled at times, has some injuries on the lines, and in our opinion, still has a question mark at QB. Pryor hasn't seen anything close to what he'll see Saturday Night. This is simply a matter of backing the better football team, which should be enough to overcome the Ohio State home field advantage. A quick score or two shuts up 100,000 people pretty damn fast. You should be able to do better than -2.5 by game time. As always, watch the number. 2* Penn State -2.5 or better
2* Georgia +2 over LSU - It's pretty much a curse for any team to be ranked #1 in the pre season polls which is where Georgia found themselves before the season started. It's just about impossible to live up to those lofty expectations, especially when every team you face brings their "A" game as they gun for number one. Georgia is a good football team. Not great. But if last year is any indication, this team figures to get better and better as each week goes by. Remember, last year they started 4-2 and looked average at best in doing so. Then they caught fire and ripped through the 2nd have of their schedule capped off by that blowout of Hawaii in the Bowl game, all of which earned this team that pre season #1. Also remember that this is pretty much the same team. What better way to start the stretch run than with a win over the defending National Champs?
A look at these two teams body of work to date shows us they are very similar. Both were blown out by better teams. For LSU is was Florida while Alabama waxed Georgia. Otherwise, we see some big wins against weak teams, and some mediocre performances against some stiffer SEC competition. Neither team has had that break out performance. But it's Georgia that edges out LSU in many important categories. They are number one in the SEC in passing offense, total offense and rushing defense. (LSU is 5th in the SEC in rushing defense)
Georgia has a young offensive line that has had some injuries this year but they have held their own. In watching both teams this year, we have been less impressed with LSU. We simply feel Georgia is the better all around team here team here and the stats would seem to back us up. LSU has been a great team at home over the years (have won 30 straight at home on Saturdays) but Georgia has played some of it's best football under Mark Richt on the road as they have been one of the best road teams in the nation year after year. They are 9-2 under Richt, on the road against ranked teams. Not too shabby eh? A win here puts Georgia back in the mix as far as the big picture goes, a place where many thought they should be before the season started. This week and next will determine that as next up for the Bulldogs is Florida. Ouch. Talk about a 1-2 punch. Georgia has the talent and track record to get by LSU this week setting up a huge game next week with the Gators. 2* Georgia +2
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